Consider the probability of the assertion, made by Sir John Maundeville in his Travels, that Noah’s Ark may still be seen on a clear day, resting where it was left by the receding waters of the Flood, on the top of Mount Ararat. For this assertion to be probable on Sir John’s testimony, it must first of all be probable that he made it from his recollection rather than his fancy. Then, on the assumption that he wrote as he remembered what he saw or heard told, it must be probable also that his memory could be trusted against a lapse such as might have occurred during the long years after he left the region of Mount Ararat and before he found in his writing a solace from his “rheumatic gouts” and his “miserable rest.” Finally, on the assumption that his testimony was honest and his memory sound, it must be probable that he or those on whom he depended could be sure that they had truly seen Noah’s Ark, a matter made somewhat doubtful by his other statement that the mountain is seven miles high and has been ascended only once since the Flood.
— Algebra of Probable Inference, by Richard T. Cox
